Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market platform, took a major step forward in its sports-related offerings on Thursday by launching single-game NFL betting-style markets. The new feature opens trading for Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season, marking a potentially significant shift at the intersection of financial derivatives and sports wagering — especially because Kalshi is accessible to users in all 50 U.S. states.
This rollout follows Kalshi’s earlier expansion into markets covering the NBA, NHL, and MLB. However, the addition of NFL markets is particularly impactful. The league is the largest driver of handle and customer acquisition in regulated U.S. sports betting. Kalshi had previously offered macro-level futures such as Super Bowl champions or conference winners, but this new weekly game-by-game functionality represents a deeper integration into the sports prediction economy.
How Kalshi’s NFL markets compare to sportsbooks
Kalshi’s markets resemble moneyline bets — participants buy “Yes” or “No” shares tied to game outcomes, priced between $0.01 and $0.99. These function similarly to binary options, where the final value is either $1 or $0 depending on the outcome. This allows for clear comparisons with traditional sportsbooks in terms of value.
As of now, 10 of the 16 Week 1 matchups are available on Kalshi. One of the most anticipated is the season opener on Thursday, September 4, with the Philadelphia Eagles hosting NFC East rival Dallas Cowboys. For example:
- Philadelphia to win:
- Kalshi: Buy “Yes” shares at $0.75
- Bet365: Moneyline at -310
- On a $10 trade, the difference in return is less than $1
- Dallas to win:
- Kalshi: $0.25
- FanDuel: +265
- Here, Kalshi offers a slightly better return for those backing the underdog
Another close matchup is the Jets vs. Steelers:
- Jets to win:
- Kalshi: $0.44
- BetMGM: +130
- Payouts are nearly identical (~$13 for a $10 position)
When spreads are tight, prediction market pricing and sportsbook odds often converge. For example, the Colts vs. Dolphins game shows Indianapolis trading at 53% on Kalshi (roughly -113 implied), while sportsbooks list them between -110 and -120. Miami is priced at +100 on DraftKings, close to Kalshi’s implied odds.
On the other hand, longshot scenarios tend to favor Kalshi. The Giants, trading at $0.29 (29% implied probability) on Kalshi, compare to +260 at BetMGM. The payout difference on a $10 bet is about $9 higher on Kalshi.
Limited market depth but growing overlap
Kalshi currently limits trading to game outcome markets and selected futures (division champions, win totals). This stands in contrast to the extensive prop markets and in-game betting options at sportsbooks. However, Kalshi has signaled a willingness to expand its product suite based on user demand, particularly as it gains traction with mainstream sports audiences.
What remains unclear is how the NFL and regulators will respond. While MLB and NBA have already raised concerns with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over the integrity risks posed by sports-based prediction markets, the NFL has remained silent publicly. However, multiple reports suggest the league is monitoring Kalshi’s actions closely.
Regulatory scrutiny still lingers
Kalshi operates as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) regulated by the CFTC, positioning itself as a hedging platform rather than a sportsbook. However, the regulatory boundary remains blurry — especially as its offerings expand into areas with strong overlap with gambling. The platform recently faced rejection from the CFTC after attempting to launch political election markets, which the Commission deemed inconsistent with public interest.
Kalshi has also faced resistance from state-level regulators. A federal court recently granted Kalshi an injunction in New Jersey, ruling that only the CFTC has jurisdiction over the platform’s markets, while another judge ruled that Nevada regulators have no authority to regulate Kalshi. Kalshi’s CEO has stated they are “not necessarily very concerned” about these challenges, emphasizing the platform’s federal protections.
Kalshi’s entry into weekly NFL game trading adds a new layer to the evolving US betting and prediction ecosystem. By operating under federal financial regulations while offering betting-adjacent markets, the platform continues to blur the lines between speculation and wagering. As both regulators and leagues weigh their next moves, Kalshi’s experiment with the NFL could set important precedents for the future of legal sports prediction trading.t precedents for the future of legal sports prediction trading.
