Just in time for football season, Kalshi is adding NFL and college football point spreads, totals, and touchdown props to its sports event contract offerings.
Until now, moneylines were the only game-specific markets available on the prediction market platform.
Offering spreads, totals and props – three of the most popular ways to bet on football games – gets Kalshi closer to the full-fledged sportsbook many believe it is striving to be.
Kalshi submitted the new products to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission yesterday, Monday, August 18 at 8:15am ET, and the agency’s inaction within 24 hours was a de facto greenlight for the company to move forward. The CFTC, which allows prediction markets to self-certify new products, could have rejected the contracts or put them in a 90-day review process. It did neither.
Kalshi’s move, reported by Fifty Cent Dollars’ Adhi Rajaprabhakaran and Event Horizon’s Dustin Gouker, is significant but not a surprise. While Kalshi insists that trading on its platform is not the same as betting with a sportsbook, most industry observers see little difference between the two and believe a large slice of the sports betting market is what prediction markets mostly covet. Football, of course, is the most coveted sport of all.
Since it is regulated by the CFTC and not individual states, Kalshi has access to key states sportsbooks do not.
Rajaprabhakaran writes, “Being legally accessible in states like California and Texas where traditional sports betting remains prohibited, expanding into spreads and props could drive Kalshi’s volume north of $3B quarterly. If you assume a 1% take rate via fees — very, very serious short-term revenue is at stake as the CFTC weighs these certifications ahead of the NFL season.”
Sara Slane, Kalshi’s Head of Development, told Front Office Sports, “This is a natural progression in our offerings, and clearly there’s huge consumer demand.”
Which football markets are available on Kalshi?
Kalshi appears to be rolling out its new markets gradually.
As of this Tuesday morning writing, there are spreads and totals for this week’s NFL preseason games, while spreads and totals for NFL Week 1 and college football have yet to be posted; neither have touchdown props.
Based on these product filings with the CFTC, it won’t be long until they are:
- Will <player/team> score <first/last/any/count> touchdown(s) in <time_period> of <game>?
- Will <game> have <over/under> <count> points in <time period> of <game>?
- Will <team> win <game> by <above/below/between/exactly/at least> <count> points?
These markets are in addition to the moneylines, futures and win totals Kalshi has already been offering. Users can also take positions on who will be a team’s starting QB in Week 1, the next team of a player rumored to be on the trading block, and fantasy-based season-long player props.
It’s unlikely that Kalshi will stop at touchdown props. Expect to see an expansion of its prop wagering menu, be it related to football or other sports. Many are also wondering how and when prediction markets will get into parlays, a massive profit driver for sportsbooks.
Robinhood, along with its prediction markets partner Kalshi, is stepping into the gray area of football betting, too, announcing that users can trade on the outcomes of NFL games and games involving Power 4 teams.
“Football is far and away the most popular sport in America,” said JB Mackenzie, VP & GM of Futures and International at Robinhood. “Adding pro and college football to our prediction markets hub is a no-brainer for us as we aim to make Robinhood a one-stop shop for all your investing and trading needs.”
Prediction markets boldly enter football
Kalshi and Robinhood are brashly pushing into football despite facing legal challenges from several states. While Kalshi won preliminary injunctions against cease-and-desist orders in Nevada and New Jersey, a more recent legal decision went against the company. On Aug. 1, U.S. District Judge Adam B. Abelson denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction in Maryland.
Kalshi is feeling little resistance, however, from the CFTC, which allows prediction markets to offer contracts on events that result in an economic consequence. Whether the New York Giants beat the New England Patriots by over 3.5 points in Thursday night’s preseason game fits that description is debatable, but Kalshi is leaning on the agency’s support.
“Bringing these markets under CFTC oversight gives consumers the same level of protections as Wall Street traders and institutions,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said.
