Just as the gambling industry anticipated, there’s been a flurry of activity around prediction markets as the 2025 NFL season kicks off.
The world’s biggest prediction market is set to re-enter the US, parlays are starting to show up on the platforms, and new competitors are arriving on the scene.
The timing is not a coincidence. While companies like Kalshi and Polymarket deny to regulators that they are engaging in sports betting, they tell the opposite story in their marketing. Conventional industry wisdom, in fact, believes sports is what prediction markets truly covet, and football is the holy grail of sports wagering.
Polymarket Gets Go-Ahead
Polymarket, the largest prediction market globally, has been cleared to return to the US.
The approval comes by way of a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in response to a request from QCX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange recently acquired by Polymarket, to offer event contracts.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan trumpeted the CFTC’s decision on X:
Polymarket agreed to exit the country in 2022 as part of a settlement with the CFTC, which penalized the company for operating event-based contracts without properly registering with the agency.
Whether it continued to block US users from its platform, especially during the 2024 Presidential Election, is in question, but Coplan’s assessment that Donald Trump’s victory was a signal for Polymarket to re-open Stateside is proving accurate.
For more than two-and-half weeks, at least, Polymarket has been advertising its return to the US (with markets as superfluous as whether Bill Belichick will get engaged to 24-year-old girlfriend Jordon Hudson) and prompting users to join a wait list.
A few hours before the Cowboys and Eagles take the field in the NFL’s Thursday night opener, this prospective user is still waiting for “notification [that] everything’s ready”, while being encouraged to check out polymarket.com, where moneylines, point spreads and totals should soon be available to “trade”.
Kalshi offering parlays
Parlays have been a major differentiator between prediction markets and sportsbooks, as multi-leg bets are a complex proposition for the former and a huge profit source for the latter.
We knew prediction markets would figure out this piece of the puzzle eventually, but the solution appears to be here sooner than many thought.
Kalshi, the company that’s paved prediction markets’ road into sports, submitted a notice with the CFTC on Tuesday that it is self-certifying a new contract that happens to look a lot like parlays:
“Will <outcomes> occur in <events>?”
While the notice states, “The Contract will initially be listed after close-of-business on [Wednesday] September 3rd,” as of this writing on the afternoon of Thursday, Sept. 4, it appears as though users can not yet parlay bets on the Kalshi app.
Update: By early evening and before Cowboys-Eagles kicked off, Kalshi users were able to place multiple outcomes in a single trade, such as moneyline/total/touchdown scorer. That’s the equivalent of a basic same-game parlay at a sportsbook. More complex options are likely still a long way off for Kalshi.
Verse is first
Verse is already out of the gates with a parlay prediction product, announcing it is shifting away from DFS to offer the “first parlay prediction platform in the U.S.”
More from the press release:
“Unlike trading-style prediction markets or traditional sportsbooks, Verse is designed for casual fans who want to bundle their opinions into fun – and sometimes crazy – high-upside parlay entries. Whether predicting who wins the NBA Championship and if Trump acquires Greenland, or pairing fantasy football matchups with breaking political news, Verse is the first and only platform to make these custom, cross-category parlays possible.”
Sure enough, a user can parlay Jalen Hurts over 212 passing yards; whether there will be a Scorigami in NFL Week 1; Donald Trump winning the Nobel Peace Prize; number of views on Mr. Beast’s next video; and a multitude of other fun stuff.
(‘Under’ on Hurts passing yards does not appear to be an option, although the app is a bit glitchy.)
Name a gray gambling market, and Verse is probably there. The company “operates nationwide through a promotional sweepstakes model that ensures contests are free to enter, with real cash prizes available to eligible winners,” allowing it to be accessible in “39+ states and D.C.,” the release says.
Per Betting Startups, CEO Daniel Zimmermann called the new product “a platform so compelling we’re confident enough to close down our DFS operation on the eve of the NFL season.”
Verse has some internet heft, boasting 250M+ views across social media content last year.
Webull jumps into sports
There’s a new participant in the sports-event contract space, as Webull is partnering with Kalshi to offer such markets.
The financial trading platform went live with the NFL’s Cowboys vs. Eagles Thursday night opener, Dustin Gouker reported Wednesday on Event Horizon.
Robinhood has a similar arrangement with Kalshi.
The move into sports contradicts what the company told Bloomberg in February (h/t Alfonso Straffon).
“Webull Financial is partnering with Kalshi Inc. to introduce event-contracts trading, joining other online brokerages expanding in the prediction market but rejecting a foray into sports betting,” Bloomberg reported. “… Webull has no plans to offer sports betting.”
With billions of sports wagering dollars at stake, plans change.
