Among the markets you won’t find at regulated United States sportsbooks, gaming contracts around the next Pope are prominent on financial exchanges that, to many industry observers and gamblers, bear little distinction from betting apps.
As of Tuesday evening, more than $18 million had been staked on Polymarket on who will be elected successor to Pope Francis, the Argentine pontiff who died on April 21. There’s been about $6.7 million invested in the next-Pope market on Kalshi.
The papal conclave is set to commence on Wednesday, May 7, in the Vatican, where the new Pope will be elected.
Polymarket and Kalshi, which position themselves as prediction markets rather than betting operators, are at the forefront of an emerging gray area that blurs the lines between legal gambling and investing in financial instruments designed as economic hedges.
Who will be next Pope? Here’s what prediction markets say
According to Kalshi as of this writing, Pietro Parolin of Italy and Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines have nearly identical chances to become the new Pope, at 25% and 24%, respectively. A 25% probability translates to +300 at a sportsbook, or 3-to-1 odds.
Tagle is known as the “Asian Francis” because of his similar views on progressive causes, while Parolin is a moderate whose election would mark a compromise between the progressive and conservative philosophies within the Catholic Church.
Per the numbers at Polymarket, Parolin has a 27% chance, while Tagle is at 22%.
The two favorites are followed by Italians Matteo Zuppi (11% at Polymarket) and Pierbattista Pizzaballa (9%).
Some reputable overseas sportsbooks, including Bet365, PaddyPower and William Hill, are also offering wagering on the next Pope.
In many cases, as it is with sports, the better price is found in the prediction markets.
Pope prediction props: Nearly $300K on a Trump papacy
The title of this section is written with a touch of irony, since prediction markets aren’t branding these offerings as “prop bets” like a sportsbook would. To any sports bettor, however, that’s exactly what they look like.
Polymarket offers a robust menu of such markets. Here’s a sampling, with the approximate trading volume listed parenthetically.
- # of days to elect the next Pope ($213,000)
- What country will next Pope be from? ($185,000)
- Will the next Pope be 70+ years old? ($145,000)
- What will the next Pope believe in? ($106,000)
- Will Donald Trump be the next Pope? ($295,000)
While there are 17 total markets related to the next Pope on Polymarket (Kalshi has six), some of them — as you sometimes see for small maximum bets at offshore sportsbooks — are so outlandish that they have no realistic chance of occurring. Donald Trump will not be the next Pope, yet someone on the other side of a potential trade on Polymarket is willing to risk $10,000,000 against your $10 “investment” on Pope Trump becoming reality.
U.S. sportsbooks and elections
Some U.S. bookmakers have long expressed interest in offering odds on elections, particularly presidential ones. The handle would easily eclipse that of the Super Bowl, they speculate.
The idea, though, has not gone over well with regulators.
While handle on Francis’ successor wouldn’t come close to, say, the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election, the millions of dollars staked on Polymarket and Kalshi illustrate there is indeed interest in events that prediction markets can capitalize on as they operate free of state gambling regulation.
