Plenty will be decided in MLB’s second half beyond the usual fight for postseason spots and ultimately the championship. Will one or two players exceed 60 home runs? Will any team exceed 100 victories? Which of the three hotly contested division races will come down to the final week? And which team will come out of nowhere?
Bettors, fans, and analysts alike turn their focus toward the futures. Let’s look at how MLB second-half and futures predictions stack up against sportsbooks. We’ll see where they match, where they differ, and what each shows about how fans view the rest of the season.
Note: These odds and percentages are as of Thursday, July 17.
Most home runs
It was a safe assumption before the year began that Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani would reign supreme among the league’s most prolific power hitters. Polymarket gave each a 51% chance of being at the top of the homer leaderboard at season’s end. But a new name has joined the group. Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (who was at 10% on March 27) leads everyone in this category and, with 38 at the break, is on pace for 64. Despite a three-homer edge over the Yankee slugger, the prediction markets give Judge a 47-36 edge over Raleigh. Both FanDuel and DraftKings make Judge the favorite too, with minus odds. The main factors are Judge’s history and Raleigh’s lack of history. Additionally, Raleigh’s position in the field is the most physically demanding in the sport.
American League MVP
It’s a similar scenario when it comes to MVP. Judge and Raleigh are, to no one’s surprise, the most likely winners of this honor. Raleigh’s extra responsibilities as a catcher boost his value to the Mariners and his appeal to voters. However, Judge stands out in key areas: a league-best .355 batting average, a .462 on-base percentage, and a 1.195 OPS.
Both predictions and major sportsbooks side with Judge as well. Kalshi and Polymarket give him 78 and 77%, respectively, and a $10 wager there would only yield players about a $3 profit. Judge is at -600 on FanDuel and -650 on DraftKings. This means less return on investment compared to buying in the predictions market.
National League MPV
Ohtani might be slightly lost in the home run leader chase, but not when it comes to eyeing another MVP in the NL. All signs point to him getting his fourth and the second time in as many years as a Dodger. There’s quite a disparity in his odds between DraftKings and FanDuel. The former has him as a -1100 favorite while the latter has him at -800. Neither wager offers as much as what’s available now at Polymarket and Kalshi. Both sites show about an 80% chance for Chicago Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong, making him the top long shot.
AL Cy Young
While the honor for top pitcher is not necessarily based on value, Tarik Skubal is the ace of the best team in the AL. That might be a small reason why he’s as strong as 64% on Polymarket (and having been as high as 81 about a week ago). That is most closely matched by a -200 number on DraftKings, in which both provide $5 of profit on a $10 bet. The best opportunity for players (if they prefer Skubal) is Kalshi at 62%. Conversely, any thought on Boston’s Garret Crochet would be a potentially big win with his 22% Polymarket number — although it was at around 7% earlier in July.
NL Cy Young
It’s essentially a dead heat in the NL. Paul Skenes of the Pirates might have started the All-Star Game, but Zack Wheeler of the Phillies has the edge pretty much across the board. But not by much. Wheeler’s -110 odds on FanDuel are matched by Skenes, while his -125 on DraftKings bests the -105 for the Pittsburgh ace. The best value play for both is on the predictions market. Kalshi has both knotted at 46%, with Wheeler’s number having dropped by 10 points recently. Philly’s top arm is a leg up on Skenes per Polymarket: 49 to 45.
Division, league, World Series champions
The Toronto Blue Jays might be ahead for now, but they sit second when it comes to this future bet. June began a horrible stretch for the New York Yankees. According to Kalshi, their division-winning percentage dropped to 42% in early July. Yet they haven’t been surpassed by the Blue Jays here. The Yankees are currently at 50%, which is essentially like +100. DraftKings and FanDuel each give them minus odds still. It seems everyone likes the long-term outlook over Toronto. This is especially true since the Yankees have the easiest schedule in the division.
It’s even closer in the NL East, with Philadelphia up by just a half-game on the Mets. The Phillies, having won the division last year and being a perennial contender with capable veterans, are the favorites all around. Kalshi offers a 59% chance, giving players a $7 profit on a $10 bet. This is similar to the odds at DraftKings, which are set at -135. The odds for both the Phillies and Mets have widely varied, as each has gone through separate dry spells and hot streaks. About a month ago, New York’s Kalshi percentage was 73. Three weeks before that, Philly held the edge. In fact, the two teams have swapped spots at least six times over the course of the first half.
It wasn’t until July 4 that the Detroit Tigers emerged as the leading contender, at least as far as the prediction markets are concerned (27 at both Polymarket and Kalshi). A division title looks likely. They lead the Central by 11.5 games. This means automatic entry into the Division Series and possible home-field advantage. But Detroit’s odds aren’t overwhelmingly more than the Yankees’, which have a 23% chance on Polymarket and 22 on Kalshi. DraftKings offers the better value over FanDuel as both the Tigers and Yankees could potentially pay out at least $28 on a $10 bet.
The Dodgers have held a solid edge since day one, as you might expect. Los Angeles has the most talented and deepest roster coupled with the experience of winning it all last year. Both prediction sites give LA a 41% chance and the major sportsbooks have it ranging between +120 and +140. Beyond the Dodgers is a logjam. The Phillies, Mets, and Cubs are clustered in the 15%, +500 range. For comparison’s sake, Polymarket has the Cubs and Mets at 13%, or a possible profit of $66 should they claim the pennant. Contrast that with +600 offered at DraftKings and the end result is more than $6 less.
Los Angeles has been at the top of the pecking order among the entire sport. Not even a recent seven-game losing streak effected its odds. Players will find the Dodgers at 28% around the prediction sites. Detroit and the Yankees are barely cracking double digits. Like most future team and player bets, places like Kalshi and Polymarket provide the more lucrative return on investment. Wagering $10 at this stage can net $26 more, but DraftKings current odds of +255 come very close. The Yanks (at +650) are actually the second favorite at DraftKings with the Tigers, Phillies and Mets trailing. Over at FanDuel, Detroit is the closest to the Dodgers at +700, with Philly and the Bronx Bombers not far back at +800. Investing in the Phils or Yanks on the prediction markets at around eight and 10 cents apiece, however, gives way to a much larger payoff.
