The NBA Draft is a forecasting challenge for teams and scouts as much as it is for sharp bettors and analysts. While sportsbooks set odds based on insider information, media buzz, and betting volume, prediction markets harness collective intelligence from traders wagering on outcomes like draft position or team selection.
Let’s delve into the differences between these two avenues, comparing how online sportsbooks and prediction markets signal expectations ahead of the draft—and which proves more accurate when the commissioner finally calls each name on Wednesday evening.
The further down the top 10, the more variance there is
It’s a given the first name called will be Cooper Flagg. The former Duke Blue Devil is consensus choice to be the No. 1 pick (currently held by the Dallas Mavericks) across every platform. Therefore, there is next to no value in putting money on him. In the unlikely scenario that it winds up being one of two Rutgers stars — Dylan Harper or Ace Bailey — Kalshi users can get $100. However, there’s disparity among the major sportsbooks. While each are +20000 on FanDuel (and can result in a $2,000 payout on a $10 wager), DraftKings has Harper at +12000 with both Bailey and Baylor’s VJ Edgecombe at +18000.
This kind of bet — in which a user can select the exact name for a specific draft pick — is available for each choice in the top 10. While not nearly as insurmountable, Dylan Harper looks to have a lock on being the second choice.
It’s not until we get to No. 3, and the Philadelphia 76ers’ turn, that there is some balance in the odds. V.J. Edgecombe is the only player available at FanDuel and DraftKings with minus odds, with a more favorable number on DraftKings. A $10 bet on -275 could net a $13.63 payout, more than two dollars less than what Kalshi is offering. The Baylor product is a 69 percent choice with a $66 price tag for buying. Bailey and Texas’ Tre Johnson have the next best odds all around, but again they vary greatly depending on where users look.
FanDuel has Bailey at +550 and Johnson at +500 while FanDuel has +600 for Bailey and +350 for Johnson. The value at Kalshi resides primarily in Johnson’s stock, where a $10 purchase has the potential of getting back $67. Not long ago, Bailey was the favorite to go to Philly. But after announcing he would initially not work out for certain teams, his draft stock fell. So too did his odds to be taken at the top of the board.
Going further down, there’s even greater variance. All of the remaining choices in the top 10 have plus odds and there are no heavy favorites among the group.
More broadly, the “To be a Top 5 Draft Pick” and “To be a Top 10 Draft Pick” present a multitude of options on sportsbooks and prediction sites. Bailey remains among the most solid choices to be taken within the first five, although his Kalshi percentage went from 74.1 on June 18 to 52 percent as of Monday. Duke’s Kon Knueppel is another, who has seen his odds rise significantly since the start of the week. Still, the best price for him is on DraftKings. His -1000 odds would yield a larger payout than the $0.95 price for a ‘Yes’ purchase at Kalshi.
DraftKings, FanDuel, and Kalshi have different views on Johnson. At 50 percent, choosing to trade him at $10 is obviously more highly profitable than Knueppel. However, DraftKings has his number at -350, which could lead to just a $12.85 return. Meanwhile, he’s -210 on FanDuel or a potential for $14.76.
Prediction markets capturing pulse of public sentiment
As for betting on top 10 selections, the player who elicits wide dissimilarity in his odds is Derik Queen. The reason might be pointed to a tumble in some projections and uncertainty about how the skills displayed at Maryland could translate to the professional level. Like all players, other variables include team needs and trades.
Queen’s price on Kalshi went up by eight cents over the weekend, and it’s now $45 for ‘Yes’, while a same wager via FanDuel gives a slightly higher payout.
However, DraftKings is where we saw a major difference as of Monday, as Queen’s odds of being taken in the top 10 were -500. Since then, it’s more closely matched the prediction markets with +115 odds. Kalshi had Noa Essengue from France as having the highest odds at 52 percent yet trending down.
As of Tuesday, it’s lowered to 33 percent. Illinois guard Kasparas Jakučionis’ 47 percent is an 14-point dropoff from what it was less than a week ago. There’s far more consistency here when looking at them on the major sportsbooks. Essengeue’s numbers on FanDuel and DraftKings are -125 and -110, respectively. Meanwhile, Jakučionis’ is shown on FanDuel at +100 yet is not even on the DraftKings board.
In an event dominated by near-locks at the top and uncertainty around the middle of the lottery, the 2025 NBA Draft shows that while sportsbooks set the stage, prediction markets still best capture the shifting pulse of public sentiment. However, finding the best value is an exercise in having an eye across the sports betting landscape.
